Data shows that the market size of harmonic reducers in China is expected to exceed 4 billion yuan by 2025. In order to break the monopoly of core components by foreign brands, in addition to companies focused on the reducer track, some cross-border entrants have also started to explore the second growth line of their business with reducers starting from their own business.
Recently, Zhejiang Wanliyang Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wanliyang"), a leading enterprise in China's automotive parts transmission industry, revealed in its semi annual report that the company has established a professional technical research and development team, focusing on developing harmonic reducers and planetary reducers. At present, the prototype trial production work has been completed and the product performance testing stage has entered. In the future, we will fully utilize the gear process design and precision manufacturing capabilities we have developed over the years, vigorously develop the robot reducer business, and form a new business growth point for the company.
As the largest supplier of autonomous transmissions in China, Wanliyang was established in 1996, formerly known as Jinhua Tsinghua Industrial Co., Ltd. Its products cover passenger car transmissions, commercial vehicle transmissions, new energy drive transmission systems, as well as automotive components such as gear shafts and housing covers, providing supporting services for mainstream domestic brands such as Chery Automobile, Geely Automobile, Beiqi Foton, Dongfeng Automobile, etc. The product production, sales, and market share are among the top in the industry.
How did Wan Liyang consider moving from the automotive parts industry to the gearbox industry with such strong strength?
The wave of humanoid robots drives the rapid development of harmonic reducers
With the industrialization of Tesla humanoid robots and the acceleration of AI technologies such as ChatGPT, artificial interaction and artificial intelligence have become a major trend. As the most ideal carrier of "embodied intelligence", humanoid robots stand at the intersection of multiple industrial resonance and are expected to lead future industrial transformation.
In order to achieve the affordable target of 20000 US dollars per humanoid robot, the industrialization process cannot be separated from the support of domestic hardware supply chain. The flexible and precise movements of humanoid robots require the coordination of different joint movements, and the flexible operation of joints inevitably requires the "help" of precision transmission components. According to a research report from Huatai Securities Research Institute, Tesla's humanoid robot has approximately 40 joints throughout its body, which are jointly constructed by rotary actuators, linear actuators, and dexterous hands. The total cost of the joints is approximately 410000 yuan, with harmonic reducers alone accounting for about 10%.
Compared to other transmission components, the harmonic reducer, as a type with high transmission ratio, small volume, and light weight, is more suitable for application in robot joint modules. In the rapidly developing robot industry, the high value of harmonic reducers is evident, and the popularity of humanoid robots will bring huge opportunities to harmonic reducers.
In terms of the overall situation of the harmonic reducer industry, driven by policies and major downstream industries, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. The number of domestic manufacturers engaged in the research and production of harmonic reducers has increased, the technical level has improved, the product series has gradually enriched, and has successfully broken through the monopoly of international brands in the domestic market. Domestic independent brands have already occupied a certain market share in the domestic market through cooperation with domestic robot manufacturers.
Domestic substitution is in full swing, and the advantages of domestic enterprises lie in cost-effectiveness and service
The technical barriers of harmonic reducers are high, and they have strong moats in basic materials, design, processing technology, processing equipment, and other aspects. As a technology intensive industry, advanced entrants have a first mover advantage based on their process technology and processing experience.
In the 50 years since its establishment, Japan's Harmonaco has continuously invested and accumulated in products and technology, achieving continuous breakthroughs in technology and casting high industry barriers. From the current international market pattern, the majority of global market share is still occupied by Japanese companies.
However, it should be noted that the development of China's harmonic reducer industry has been delayed by nearly 50 years compared to Japan. The current market pattern does not represent the direction of future development. Mastering core technologies is the key to the "top spot" competition in the field of harmonic reducers in the future.
According to MIR data, benefiting from the high prosperity of downstream industrial robots and other industries, the sales of harmonic and RV reducers in China have increased from 543000 units in 2019 to 1.263 million units in 2022. During this period, the CAGR was 32.5%, and it is expected to continue to grow by over 2 million units with a CAGR of 16.8% in 23-25 years. Structurally, industrial robots are the largest application field for reducers, accounting for 79.7% in 2022.
The cost-effectiveness and service of products are currently the main advantages of domestic harmonic reducers. From the perspective of product types, high-quality manufacturers such as Green Harmonic and Laifu have emerged for domestic harmonic reducers, with only Green Harmonic having a market share of 25%.
Thanks to the driving force of green harmonic and double ring transmission, the localization rate of the domestic reducer market has continued to increase in recent years, and domestic substitution can basically be achieved. Since Green Harmonic took the lead in breaking the monopoly of international brands on harmonic reducers and achieving large-scale production, other domestic enterprises have also been rapidly catching up, and domestic brands have continued to expand their market share in the domestic market.
Conclusion
With the popularity of the concept of humanoid robots, many companies outside the industry are actively expanding into the fields of reducers and robots, with a focus on the development opportunities of the humanoid robot market. It can be foreseen that these entrants, with their strong product strength and deep customer base, will provide a more favorable development environment and strong development confidence for the domestic harmonic reducer market.