In 2022, the third year of the epidemic and a major turning point for the robotics industry, the growth rate shifted from high in 2021 to low in 2022, during which various links of the robotics industry chain were under significant pressure.
In the first half of the year, affected by the epidemic situation and the Russo-Ukrainian War and other factors, the price of raw materials rose, Chip shortage were scarce, and the robot industry was "rising". The supply side experienced great tests and challenges. In the second quarter, the industry growth hit the bottom, and the overall shipment volume fell 3.87% year on year.
Starting from the second half of the year, the pressure on the supply chain has eased, and the industry's growth rate has rebounded. In the third quarter, the industry's growth rate exceeded 20%, and it is expected that the industry will continue its growth trend of over 20% in the fourth quarter. However, it cannot be ignored that the overall order growth rate in the third quarter began to narrow, reflecting a tightening of downstream demand.
As an industry highly dependent on the development of the manufacturing industry, industrial robots' landscape largely depends on the pace of investment in the manufacturing industry. For a long time in the past, the demand for industrial robots in the automobile and 3C industries accounted for nearly 60%, which can be described as two major Political base for the application of industrial robots.
At the product level, the prosperity of collaborative robots is relatively high, with domestic manufacturers leading the growth rate, and the localization rate continues to increase; The medium to large load six axis robots benefit from the demand driven by the new energy and new energy vehicle industries, with significant growth and a continuous increase in entrants; Due to the decline of the 3C industry, the overall growth rate of the small six axis robot and SCARA has significantly declined; Parallel robots have been affected by the tightening demand in major industries such as food and daily chemicals, and their growth rate has not met expectations.
At the enterprise level, compared with domestic and foreign enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, affected by epidemic situation, logistics, Chip shortage and other factors, have extended the delivery time again and again, while product prices have generally risen. Domestic enterprises benefit from the advantages of localized supply chain, and the long board of delivery time and price has further expanded. From the perspective of size and volume, the Matthew effect continues to intensify, the growth momentum of leading manufacturers represented by Aston and Huichuan continues, the scale advantage is further expanded, the survival pressure of many small and medium-sized enterprises is doubled, and they are facing pressure and challenges from orders, funds, supply chains and other aspects.
At the application level, new energy is undoubtedly the biggest growth force. Industries such as 3C, metal machinery, and home appliances have seen a significant decline, while the automotive and parts industries have shown varying degrees of growth. Other sub sectors such as semiconductors and logistics warehousing have shown some growth.
At the capital level, hot money has subsided, and the number of financing cases in the Primary market has declined sharply. Only a few small molecule racetracks can get money, such as cooperative robots, end grippers, machine vision, retarders, etc. The obvious trend is that 2022 can be regarded as a crossroad of differentiation, and the funds will flow more intensively to the leading manufacturers of subdivision racetracks, making it difficult for enterprises below the waist to finance generally.
Product level:
Multi joint robots: The number of domestic entrants in the field of medium to large loads (≥ 20kg) continues to increase, and various companies have successively released products with medium to large loads (≥ 20kg), while domestic super large load products (≥ 200kg) have begun to be widely used.
Collaborative robots: The prices of domestic brands have further declined, and the number of entrants in the commercial service field has increased. Going overseas has become a trend, leading manufacturers have gradually entered the countdown to listing, and market concentration has further increased.
SCARA robots: Overall, there is a significant structural differentiation. On the one hand, top manufacturers continue to grow, while manufacturers at the waist and below are becoming more introverted; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for heavy-duty and high-speed SCARA products, and low-end general-purpose SCARA products are facing overcapacity. The core reason is the limited recovery of the downstream 3C industry.
Reducer: Benefiting from the increasing volume of medium and large load robot products, the demand for RV reducers is expected to continue to grow. Based on the limited availability of domestically produced large load RV reducers, medium and large load RV reducers will become relatively scarce.
End effector: The penetration rate of electric grippers continues to increase, and the domestic market sales are expected to exceed 100000 units, with a domestic share exceeding 70%.
Market level:
Based on the backlog of robot orders from various companies in 2022 and the analysis and prediction of demand for downstream industries, it is expected that the growth rate of China's industrial robot market will be around 20% -25% in 2023. The overall recovery like "big explosion" has gradually faded away, and the demand driving force for downstream products mainly comes from new energy vehicles, automotive parts, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other fields. After power batteries, another golden track - the rise of energy storage batteries, The thickness of the new energy industry (lithium battery, photovoltaic, etc.) continues to increase, and the demand for industrial robots is expected to exceed 20%.
The Chinese industrial robot market has re formed a competitive pattern of "one super, multiple strong". In 2023, there will be at least two domestic industrial robot manufacturers with annual sales exceeding 20000 units, and the number of domestic manufacturers with annual sales exceeding 10000 units will reach five, further enhancing market concentration.