With the industrialization of Tesla humanoid robots and the acceleration of AI technologies such as ChatGPT, artificial interaction and artificial intelligence have become a major trend. As the most ideal carrier of "embodied intelligence", humanoid robots stand at the intersection of multiple industrial resonance and are expected to lead future industrial transformation.
In order to achieve the affordable target of 20000 US dollars per humanoid robot, the industrialization process cannot be separated from the support of domestic hardware supply chain. It is expected that the market size of humanoid robots in the future is expected to reach a trillion level, with the value of humanoid robot parts accounting for 61%, which will drive the blue ocean race of robot parts to set sail.
The flexible and precise movements of humanoid robots require the coordination of different joint movements, and the flexible operation of joints inevitably requires the "help" of precision transmission components. According to a recent research report from Huatai Securities Research Institute, Tesla's humanoid robot has approximately 40 joints throughout its body, which are jointly constructed by rotary actuators, linear actuators, and dexterous hands. The total cost of the joints is approximately 410000 yuan, with harmonic reducers alone accounting for about 10%.
Compared to other transmission components, the harmonic reducer, as a type with high transmission ratio, small volume, and light weight, is more suitable for application in robot joint modules.
In the rapidly developing robot industry, the high value of harmonic reducers is evident, and the popularity of humanoid robots will bring huge opportunities to harmonic reducers.
As a leading domestic industry leader in harmonic reducers, Green Harmonic has previously achieved industrial production and large-scale application of harmonic reducers in China, breaking the monopoly of international brands in the field of robot harmonic reducers in China.
On the evening of August 30th, Green Harmonic stated that its operating revenue in the first half of this year was 172 million yuan, a decrease of 29.52% compared to the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 50.6411 million yuan, a decrease of 44.74% compared to the same period last year. The decline in employment performance is mainly due to a decrease in main business income, according to the report.
With regard to the operation in the first half of the year, the report analyzed that the company was affected by the sluggish market demand in 3C electronic products, semiconductor industry and other industries, and the slowdown of fixed assets investment in the above-mentioned industries put pressure on the demand of downstream industrial robots and other industries of the company. The impact of the above factors on the demand for industrial robots is transmitted to the demand side of the company's products, resulting in a certain impact on the company's sales situation during the reporting period.
Regarding the overall situation of the harmonic reducer industry, the report states that, driven by policies and major downstream industries, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. There has been an increase in domestic manufacturers engaged in the research and production of harmonic reducers, an improvement in technical level, a gradual enrichment of product series, and a successful breakthrough in the monopoly of international brands in the domestic market. Domestic independent brands have already occupied a certain market share in the domestic market through cooperation with domestic robot manufacturers.
In the first half of this year, the revenue of the precision reducer business of double ring drive was 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.35%, with a significant increase. Shuanghuan Transmission Holdings' subsidiary, Huandong Technology, actively responds to new market opportunities and challenges, and continues to make efforts in the robot precision reducer business.
The report shows that with the increasing demand in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles, domestic robot host manufacturers continue to increase. The production and sales of the RV reducer business of the Environmental Technology robot have significantly increased year-on-year and month on month, and the market share has further increased. Thanks to the deepening of industrial chain strategy collaboration, its harmonic reducer business has achieved stable supply of multiple models, and production capacity has been released and rapidly increased.
Another harmonic reducer player, Dalide, has been following the trend of miniaturization, integration, and integration in the industry and has been committed to integrating core component systems in recent years. The company has formed an integrated product architecture of reducer+motor+drive around industrial automation and industrial robots, and has launched modular products such as "precision planetary reducer+servo motor+drive" integrated machine, "RV reducer+servo motor+drive" integrated machine, and "harmonic reducer+servo motor+drive" integrated machine, achieving product structure upgrading.
In the first half of 2023, the company's operating revenue was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.03%, and a gross profit margin of 21.17%. The operating revenue of its reducer business is 122 million yuan, accounting for 22.70% of the total operating revenue.
The report points out that China is in a critical period of upgrading and upgrading its industrial products, and requires a stable development environment. However, the uncertainty of global economic recovery and the increasing external trade barriers to China will cause unprecedented pressure and risks to China's manufacturing industry. Reducers and gearmotors are the most widely used core components in the manufacturing industry, with a wide range of downstream applications and high macroeconomic relationships. If the recovery speed of the manufacturing industry slows down in the future, it may affect the development of the industry.
In addition to the core component reducer of robots, motion control has also been referred to as the "brain" of high-end equipment such as robots.
According to relevant data, the global motion control market space in 2022 is expected to reach $15.5 billion, and it is expected to reach $20 billion by 2027. During this period, the compound growth rate is 5.2%, mainly due to the continuous growth of industrial robot demand and the continuous development of Industry 4.0.
At present, the main participants in high-performance motion control and servo drive products in the market are foreign manufacturers. Overseas enterprises are in a leading position in product richness and maturity. Taking Beifu as an example, its global sales in 2022 were 1.515 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 28%.
The domestic market participants mainly include Hechuan Technology, Huazhong CNC, Eston, Leisai Intelligence, Huichuan Technology, Gu High Tech, etc. These enterprises have achieved certain breakthroughs in core technologies and market share in the fields of motion control, servo drive, etc.
Domestic brands represented by Gu High tech, Lei Sai Intelligent, and Zhongweixing have occupied over 70% of the market share. Enterprises such as Huichuan Technology and Hechuan Technology have made breakthroughs in the servo system market, but there is still significant room for domestic substitution.
In the first half of the year, Gu High Tech achieved a revenue of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47%. Hechuan Technology achieved a revenue of 601.6938 million yuan, an increase of 28.89% compared to the same period last year. During the reporting period, General Automation was the main source of revenue for Hechuan Technology, achieving a revenue of 55.13622 million yuan, an increase of 23.20% compared to the same period last year.
With the rise of labor costs and the weakening of population dividends, there is an urgent need for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. "Machine replacement" has become an inevitable development direction, and the development of motion control and intelligent manufacturing industries has a long-term internal driving force.
In addition to the transformation and upgrading needs of traditional manufacturing industries, China's emerging manufacturing demand represented by semiconductors, new energy, robots, 3C electronics, etc. is rapidly increasing. The application fields of motion control and intelligent manufacturing are constantly expanding, which will further promote the development of the industry.
However, the rise in raw material prices, the uncertainty of the macro environment, and the intensification of market competition have also brought certain risks to domestic core component manufacturers. Only by continuously strengthening core technologies and actively improving competitiveness can we maintain our position in the market.