Looking forward to 2023, the overall growth rate of China's industrial robot market is expected to be 20% to 25%, and the new energy industry is still the biggest driving force.
China's industrial robot sales may exceed 300,000 units this year
In the complex economic environment, the growth rate of China's industrial robot market has declined compared with the previous year, but sales will still exceed 300,000 units.
On December 14, Gaogong Robot expects that the overall sales of industrial robots in China will reach 303,000 units in 2022, an estimated increase of about 16% from 261,300 units in the previous year, and a large decline from the annual growth rate of nearly 54% in the previous year. The sales volume of industrial robots in domestic enterprises reached 132,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate higher than the overall level of the industry, and the market share of domestic enterprises remained at a level of about 40%.
From the trend point of view, the overall sales level of industrial robots this year is low. In the first ten months of this year, China's industrial robot production was 362,600 sets, down 3.2% year-on-year, but the output in October was 39,000 sets, a year-on-year growth rate of 14.4%, significantly better than the annual average. Gaogong Robot interpreted that the regional lockdown and supply chain tension in the first half of the year led to delivery problems in the robot's attempt, but the downstream procurement budget still retains a large space, and the demand side is expected to rise after the supply chain problem is solved.
From the perspective of the downstream industry, in the past, the demand for industrial robots in the automotive and 3C industries accounted for nearly 60%, and this year, the new energy industry has become the largest demand pull, and the demand growth rate of lithium, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles-based automotive industry is rising. In addition, the demand for semiconductors, logistics and warehousing has also increased. The traditional main downstream 3C industry has declined significantly, and the demand growth rate of metal processing, home appliances, food and beverage and other industries has also declined.
Corresponding to the changes in the downstream market, under the traction of the automobile and new energy markets, the demand for various large-load robots has increased. In the first half of this year, the market share of large-load six-axis robots exceeded 30% for the first time, and the demand for high-speed, large-load SCARA robots also increased. Due to the downturn of the 3C industry and other factors, the small six-axis robot market has declined significantly year-on-year; The parallel robot market is dragged down by the food and beverage and daily chemical industries.
High-tech robots prompt that there is a small gap in the supply chain of foreign robot companies, resulting in a lengthened delivery time, and domestic automobile OEMs are also seeking the safety of the supply chain, and domestic heavy-duty robots may be accepted at the current point in time, and domestic heavy-duty robots ushered in a short window period. At present, domestic manufacturers such as Eston and EFORT have launched new heavy-duty products of more than 130kg to participate in the competition in the field of large-load robots.
Next year, the industry growth rate will still exceed 20%
Looking forward to the coming year, Gaogong Robot expects that the growth rate of China's industrial robot market in 2023 will be about 20% to 25%. Gaogong Robot said that this expectation combines the backlog of orders of various robots this year and the demand judgment of the downstream industry, and the "big outbreak" of the overall recovery of the industry has gradually drifted away.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the new energy industry is still the largest incremental source of the industry, and the demand for industrial robots is expected to exceed 20%. Gaogong Robot believes that in addition to new energy vehicles, power batteries, and photovoltaics, the energy storage battery industry is expected to further increase the thickness of the new energy industry.