The demand for industrial robots in China exceeded expectations with another 3 million sets added in ten years
Accordingto the latest data released by the International Federation of Robots, the number of industrial robots installed in China will reach 243,300 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 44%, setting a new record, which is almost equal to the total number installed in other regions of the world.
At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that, with the reduction of labor force, China is accelerating the application of industrial robots. It is understood that the penetration rate of industrial robots in China's manufacturing production line is still lagging behind that of the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea and other manufacturing powers.
Marina Beer, president of the International Federation of Robots, said: “China still has great growth potential. In 2020, the density of robots in China's manufacturing industry will be 246 industrial robots per 10000 employees, ranking ninth in the world. Ten years ago, the density of robots in China was only 15.”
Accelerating the automation process of the manufacturing industry is not only to ease the pressure of the reduction of the working population, but also to help the development of high-end manufacturing. The Wall Street Journal said that this is the only way for China to develop into a higher income country. At present, China accounts for 29% of the global manufacturing industry, which is undoubtedly the world's manufacturing factory.
1. The number of industrial robots installed in China will reach 4.2 million in 2030
At present, the aging trend in China continues to intensify. The reduction of labor force and the increase of labor costs have increased the pressure on the development of the manufacturing industry. It is urgent to accelerate the development of automation applications represented by industrial robots.
The United Nations forecast shows that China's population aged 20 to 64 (most of the workforce) may have peaked and will decline sharply after 2030.
In fact, China’s manufacturing industry has shrunk, services have continued to expand, and fewer and fewer young people are willing to work in factories. According to the data of the International Labour Organization, the number of manufacturing employment in China will be 147 million in 2021, 22 million less than that in 2012. During the same period, the number of service industry employment will increase by 32% to 365 million.
Many economists believe that China’s working population is no longer growing rapidly and can no longer rely on the continuously expanding labor force to promote economic growth. Automation is the most reliable way to improve the productivity of its existing workers.
In addition to relieving the pressure of labor shortage, China's industrial structure has accelerated its transformation, and the proportion of high-end manufacturing industry with high added value has continued to increase, which also requires accelerating the application of robot automation. The requirements of high-end manufacturing in precision, stability and other aspects are what robots are good at.
In July this year, China’s trade surplus reached 682.7 billion yuan, an increase of 91%. It is worth noting that the largest growth was in automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and mechanical and electronic products, rather than traditional textile and rough processing products. Obviously, China's industrial upgrading has made great progress.
The changes in the labor market and the economic benefits brought by the improvement of robot technology will push China into the boom period of robot application. At present, the operating inventory of China's industrial robots is about 1 million. The Wall Street Journal estimates that by 2030, the number of industrial robots on China's production lines will reach 3.2 million to 4.2 million.
2. The advanced manufacturing industry has become the main driving force for the growth of industrial robots
According to MIR Rui Industry’s statistics, in the first half of 2022, China’s industrial robot market shipped 131000 units, an increase of 1.5%. Compared with the rapid growth of last year, this year's data is dwarfed. Analysis of the changes in the industry shows that, on the one hand, due to the shortage of parts and other factors, the supply cycle has been extended and the backlog of orders is serious. The financial report shows that the backlog of orders for industrial robots in the four major families has increased significantly in the first half of the year.
On the other hand, the demand of the downstream industry of industrial robots has changed. As an industry with more applications of industrial robots, 3C electronics and metal processing have been dragged down by the overall slowdown of the industry. For example, the shipment of smart phones has continued to decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial robot shipments in the first half of the year has directly changed from positive to negative.
3. The demand for industrial robots in China exceeded expectations with another 3 million sets added in ten years
However, after careful analysis, it can be found that the demand of advanced manufacturing industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, medical, semiconductor and so on is strong, which has become the main driving force to drive the sales growth of industrial robots. There is no doubt that there is an opportunity for the industry to move to the next stage.
Taking lithium battery as an example, according to incomplete statistics, the capacity of the entire lithium battery industry in the planning is close to 2TWh. In order to ensure stability and efficiency, most of the newly planned lithium battery plants choose to use industrial robots. In general, about 50-70 industrial robots are required for 1GWh, meaning at least 100000.
The data shows that in 2021, there will be nearly 20000 industrial robots deployed in the lithium battery industry, with a year-on-year growth of 98%, while in the first half of this year, the growth will still be 37%, far exceeding the average growth rate. Multi joint robots, SCARA robots, etc. have been widely used in the middle and later production processes of lithium batteries.
From a practical point of view, the development of industrial robots is inevitable. On the one hand, in the general environment, the labor force in the manufacturing industry is declining, and robots are needed to replace the missing manpower; On the other hand, industrial upgrading forces enterprises to upgrade their production models. The implementation of emerging industries and new technologies will accelerate the development of the entire industrial robot industry.