As the epidemic has gradually become a part of people's lives in various countries, the world economy has gradually recovered; In 2021, the manufacturing industry continued its high momentum in the second half of 2020, especially in the field of mobile robots, with an industry growth rate of over 50%; However, under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the global supply chain has recovered slowly, resulting in a series of problems such as Chip shortage, commodity price inflation, energy shortage, etc., which to some extent has brought cost pressure to mobile robot start-ups.
From a policy perspective, on December 28th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with 15 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology, jointly issued the "14th Five Year Plan for the Development of the Robot Industry", which clearly stated that the focus will be on the development of logistics robots such as AGVs, unmanned forklifts, sorting, packaging, etc., and collaborative robots with large loads, light weight, flexibility, dual arms, and mobility in fields such as 3C and automotive parts, A mobile operating robot that can move at any position within the work area, with a reachable posture, and flexible operation capabilities.
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, Chinese robots have achieved significant growth and breakthroughs in terms of quantity. The 14th Five Year Plan focuses more on improving quality and developing towards high-end and international directions, which puts higher research and development requirements and funding requirements on enterprises. Robot enterprises with core technology and strong research and development capabilities will have higher valuations.
From the perspective of financing, capital preference has shifted significantly from fields such as the internet and consumption to hard technology fields such as 5G and intelligent manufacturing; On the one hand, it is due to the gradual strengthening of government regulation of the internet and real estate, while vigorously supporting technological innovation; On the other hand, it is difficult to boost terminal consumption under the impact of the epidemic; The continuous exposure and application of mobile robots have brought certainty to capital; Whether in terms of the number of enterprises, financing cases, financing quotas, industry popularity, or growth potential, mobile robots can be regarded as one of the most popular fields in the robotics industry.
According to incomplete statistics from GGII, a total of 38 financing cases occurred in the field of mobile robots in 2021, with a total financing amount of 4.7 billion yuan, all of which were more than twice the amount in 2020. The continuous increase in capital has given the market sufficient confidence, and major mobile robot manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to seize opportunities; More and more manufacturers are laying out new products and businesses, such as container robots, composite robots, unmanned forklifts, etc;
With the maturity of the mobile robot related industry chain and the improvement of terminal sensitivity to ROI, the competition in the field of mobile robots will become increasingly fierce, especially in the segmented fields. The past "fighting on their own" has evolved into "fighting against each other".
From a product perspective, due to the impact of rising costs such as chips, raw materials, and energy, the price decline of mobile robot products in 2021 is smaller than in previous years, and competitive pressure is concentrated on cost control. In addition, according to GGII statistics, the number of new mobile robot products has significantly increased in 2021, with unmanned forklifts and bin robots being particularly prominent.
From an application perspective, although the downstream market has a vast space, the segmented fields are uneven in terms of hot and cold. The heat of the semiconductor and new energy markets continues to rise, and the number of entrants continues to increase. The demand release in traditional industries such as automobiles and home appliances is slow, and the integration of warehousing and production line scenarios will be the trend, which will greatly test the comprehensive capabilities of various manufacturers.
From the perspective of the growth rate of fixed assets investment in downstream industries, the cumulative growth rate of private fixed assets investment in manufacturing industry in 2021 will remain at more than double digits throughout the year; Among them, the growth rate of private fixed assets investment in industries such as 3C, new energy and special equipment remained above 20%. However, the overall cumulative growth rate continues to slow down, showing a trend of high opening and low closing; There are two reasons. One is that the growth curve in 2020 is from bottom to top, and the corresponding fixed assets investment base is low in the front and high in the back; The second is the outbreak of the epidemic in the second half of the year, tight energy supply, and weak consumption growth.
Overall, we believe that weak consumption will continue in the short term, coupled with a weakening export margin, and it is expected that the growth rate of manufacturing investment will fall back to the 8% -10% range in 2022; In terms of segmentation, we believe that the investment growth rate in industries such as 3C and new energy will remain at a high level, coupled with multiple factors such as the continuous improvement of AGV's technology and application maturity, and the continuous emergence of cost-effectiveness advantages; It is expected that the AGV market demand growth will remain at a relatively high level in 2022, but the market growth rate is probably lower than 2021. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities in the domestic market, such as 3C, the new energy industry, and the development of more new application scenarios.